The main geopolitical change is that oil is not going to be anymore a king-maker. I would expect a second Arab Spring (though the Arab world is more than just the Arabian peninsula) with more success. I would expect a lower influence of Russia as well.
There are two possible flavors of future and really, both are credible, it depends on the stories you want to tell: more integration in supra-national entities or more independent states.
More supranational structures: EU of course and the African Union are the obvious things, and, dare I say, there are interesting spy stories/James Bond plot to be done in the context of building these powerful entities. The emergence of a new democratic federation of Russia after a period of civil strife can be an interesting plot. The MERCOSUR and the ALBA can show interesting interactions. When it comes to Asia, I suspect one may need to invent a new organization, integration of countries are not on the program (except for Korean reunification). Also, do not forget the UN. It could consolidate in a form of government. It already has a de facto minister of trade (WTO), of labor (ILO), of health (WHO), of education (UNESCO). It is a slow process but solving the climate crisis could have given it the political credit it is currently lacking.
More regionalism: With a lower incentive to move where labor is, people instead chose their place of living according to acquaintances, culture, religion, political affiliation… It led to an increase demand of separationism. And with less time wasted in labor, more people got involved in politics and interested in their local laws and rights. Also, several “virtual lands” started appearing with people not claiming a specific territory but participating in a government of their choice and living as a foreigner in their country of residence (If that seems weird, search for the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, it exists today). Many big blocks exploded: China and US are now mostly a loose federation of hundreds of independent entities. Old countries still exist but are only considered like the king of Belgium: folklore from another time. What matters is that you are a member of the Episcopalian Ecologist Alliance of Baltimore or from the Geek Order of the Lemmy Budapest Fortress.
I tend to find 1. more utopian but 2. far more fertile for ideas! Note that the 2 can be combined: federations become bigger and bigger but also looser with local independence becoming more real. To give you an example, the Basque country (a bit like Catalonia) is currently split between France and Spain but with these two countries becoming part of the EU, the border splitting the country is now irrelevant. Paradoxically, the existence of a supra-national entity may give independence movements access to a lot of their demands, but stop short of sovereignty.
It became doable so it was harshly fought by people who wanted to maintain exploitation.
If you live in a shareholders-owned company, plan to resign in the year to change for a non profit, a workers cooperative or arguably a publicly funded job.
The main geopolitical change is that oil is not going to be anymore a king-maker. I would expect a second Arab Spring (though the Arab world is more than just the Arabian peninsula) with more success. I would expect a lower influence of Russia as well.
There are two possible flavors of future and really, both are credible, it depends on the stories you want to tell: more integration in supra-national entities or more independent states.
More supranational structures: EU of course and the African Union are the obvious things, and, dare I say, there are interesting spy stories/James Bond plot to be done in the context of building these powerful entities. The emergence of a new democratic federation of Russia after a period of civil strife can be an interesting plot. The MERCOSUR and the ALBA can show interesting interactions. When it comes to Asia, I suspect one may need to invent a new organization, integration of countries are not on the program (except for Korean reunification). Also, do not forget the UN. It could consolidate in a form of government. It already has a de facto minister of trade (WTO), of labor (ILO), of health (WHO), of education (UNESCO). It is a slow process but solving the climate crisis could have given it the political credit it is currently lacking.
More regionalism: With a lower incentive to move where labor is, people instead chose their place of living according to acquaintances, culture, religion, political affiliation… It led to an increase demand of separationism. And with less time wasted in labor, more people got involved in politics and interested in their local laws and rights. Also, several “virtual lands” started appearing with people not claiming a specific territory but participating in a government of their choice and living as a foreigner in their country of residence (If that seems weird, search for the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, it exists today). Many big blocks exploded: China and US are now mostly a loose federation of hundreds of independent entities. Old countries still exist but are only considered like the king of Belgium: folklore from another time. What matters is that you are a member of the Episcopalian Ecologist Alliance of Baltimore or from the Geek Order of the Lemmy Budapest Fortress.
I tend to find 1. more utopian but 2. far more fertile for ideas! Note that the 2 can be combined: federations become bigger and bigger but also looser with local independence becoming more real. To give you an example, the Basque country (a bit like Catalonia) is currently split between France and Spain but with these two countries becoming part of the EU, the border splitting the country is now irrelevant. Paradoxically, the existence of a supra-national entity may give independence movements access to a lot of their demands, but stop short of sovereignty.