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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 23rd, 2023

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  • I do believe the people previously loaning money on the property get paid BEFORE the government so the net effect of seizure isn’t seizure FROM innocent parties. So if he owes 100M on a 80M property I’m wondering if the seizure goes through at all as there is no value to seize. if he owes 80M on a 100M property the government gets the 20M and keeps taking his shit. I suspect that the government ends up seizing a broad swath of property and holds it while they figure out what they have actually gotten and it takes months to actually shake out. I think if he’s under water he’ll end up losing it by virtue of being under water in the loan. In WA understandably a different state this is an issue with commercial property. If its revalued at less than the loan the loan can be called.




  • If a property is seized the government only gets the equity that the owner had in it so if Trump owns a 2B in property but owes 1.5B then the government may seize all 2B in order to satisfy the debt he owes the government. Worse the government will try to get as much value as possible but the value realized by a short term sale may be less than could have been realized had the customer had time to find the appropriate buyer. So if they only get 300M they can seize additional properties to satisfy the debt.

    Nobody in their right mind wants the government doing this for them instead of mortgaging and or selling their own stuff. He committed such obvious fraud he should have known the jig was up when it went to trial and started seeking buyers or mortgaging. They could have self funded an appeal bond hoping to reduce the damages and prepared for worst case losing it all.


  • I think when we discuss large volumes of paper it is often the case that much of it is irrelevant and not overly hard to sort an analyze. EG he is asserting that its impossible for him to afford to do this. You don’t need to actually keep reading the statements of his resources to each of the 30 institutions he applied to nor all the refusals unless its likely that something therein may be meaningful. We can probably read ONE and skim another and conclude that the statement that he can’t raise the bond by pledging encumbered real estate he’s constantly lied about won’t work.


  • This isn’t bail with a small risk of loss paid for by the guaranteed loss of 10% to the bondsman. This is 99% Chance of loss on a settled case with the reasonable expectation that Trump would fight collection tooth and nail, try to pay less than face via bankruptcy etc. It’s a risk of hundreds of millions of dollars that would take YEARS to settle. Years in which lenders could be earning returns if that money was invested elsewhere. 30 institutions said no.

    He needs to secure the loan with cash or cash equivalents for the whole shebang. Nobody wants properties which he has already borrowed against even if the net of value and loan are positive to the tune of hundreds of millions its risky and challenging to sell. He should have started mortgaging when the judge told him he’d lost and they were only determining the scope of the loss so he could have obtained favorable terms.



  • Manhattan doesn’t have much room to expand up or out but but Seattle still has 70% single family homes it and surrounding cities have plenty of room to build up.

    Spokane is largely populated by bigots and Trumpers. In particular the state congressman they elected wrote a paper the “biblical basis for war” wherein he advocated that after the fall of the united states they would make war on the rest of us nonbelievers taking the women prisoners and killing men who wouldn’t submit in his new Christofascist white ISIS like kingdom. He was then caught trying to “rescue” a bunch of Ukrainian kids on behalf of an organization that existed on paper only without doing boring stuff like making sure they didn’t have parents fighting in the war or other relations who wanted to take them.

    On an economic front the Seattle Metro area has substantial commerce, an international airport, a port and 4M people. Spokane has about 230k. Adding another 230k would be a 5% increase in population for the Seattle Metro it would double spokane. The resources for expanding housing and resources in the Seattle metro actually exist. If it ever makes it there that is about half a century of growth for Spokane.






  • Lets define “most”. Herein I define most as the area immediately surrounding the majority of people. 70% of people live in urban areas not out in bum fuck.

    I live in a small city of 50,000 in Washington. A house around here starts at about 400k. I would have to pay about 3100 per month including taxes and insurance. I would take home about 6500 per month after taxes if I made 100k. At current interest rates I would need to spend 3100 per month to service such a loan.or about 47% of my take home pay. It is difficult to see how I could afford a home with a household not individual of less than 100,000.

    Adjacent to me is a much bigger city with about 20x the jobs and opportunities. I would need more like 900k to buy into there. Realistically to afford a home there we are talking about my household making more than 200k. Why so much? Because housing has got very expensive and interest is very high.