This is why we watch polls months before the election. Biden has a FUCKTON of work to do in Michigan.
2020 - Biden - 50.62% Trump - 47.84%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Feb. 22-23 - Kaplan Strategies - Trump +10
Feb. 20-24 - Emerson College - Trump +2
Feb. 20-24 - Emerson College - Trump +3
(+2 is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +3 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
Feb. 22-25 - North Star Opinion Research - 43/43 tie
March 8-12 - Quinnipiac University - Trump +3
March 8-12 - Quinnipiac University - Trump +5
(+3 is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +5 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
March 13-18 - SSRS - Trump +6
(multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
March 14-18 - Emerson College - 50/50 tie
March 14-18 - Emerson College - Trump +2
(Tie is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +2 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)Tracking this over time is important.
Further, if you look at the differences between head to head polling, and polling that includes 3rd party candidates, it shows you how voting 3rd party is voting for Trump.
Yes, though it’s also worth noting that there seems to be a reverse effect of 2016 where Trump was underrepresented in polls from actual votes to now where he seems overrepresented compared to actual results.
I suspect for the same reason in opposite application.
In 2016 it was embarrassing to be pro-Trump, and so a lot may have said “undecided.” Now, particularly in conservative areas or households, it could be outright dangerous not to claim you are for him on a phone poll.
How many households have a fanatical pro-Trumper but other members planning to secretly vote against him who would never say as such on the phone to a pollster?
I definitely think anyone rational should be fighting tooth and nail to prevent the catalyst to the fall of democracy, but the situation may not actually be as dire as it seems and people’s apathy in the face of what seems an unavoidable tragedy is probably misplaced - this is very much avoidable and primary polls were off by double digits for Trump in many places.
It’s not like climate change where we really are fucked. This one is likely still up in the air.
Do you think if he stopped aiding a genocide he’d get more votes?
Do you think if trump stopped being a felon he’d get less?
No because Trumps base loves that he’s a criminal. Bidens base isn’t so crazy about genocide. It’s not really comparable unless you’re fine with losing Michigan.
Trump should have been hanged for treason, but money can buy you justice in America…
Obviously it’s yes to both…
But why would Biden wait for Republicans to do anything before he stops using my fucking tax dollars to pay for a genocide?
What exactly about Trump being the worst president we’ve ever had makes Biden ok no matter what?
Why the fuck do we always aim for “slightly better than the Republicans”?
Do you think of we do that one day Republicans will magically get better?
If not, we’re going to keep getting worse at the same fucking pace as republicans, just following behind them.
How the f uck do so many people not understand any of this.
Seriously, do you only plan your life 20 minutes ahead of time?
The neoliberal to fascist pipeline is a lot wider than the neoliberal to socialist pipe.
Why the fuck do we always aim for “slightly better than the Republicans”?
Two party voting. In order to win, you have to get voters that are as close to your opponent as possible, without your base staying home in protest. Having a more objectionable opponent just means you can ignore your own base even more, because they’re not going to stay home when that means the other asshole might win.
In order to win, you have to get voters that are as close to your opponent as possible
That may have been the case in the 90s, but nowadays not many people occupy that space. Nobody wants an almost-Republican when they can get the real deal and if you’re morally bankrupt enough to ALMOST be a Republican, you’re usually willing to take that last step in exchange for a shitload of bribes.
without your base staying home in protest.
That’s just it: Dems arepretending that it’s always going to be 1992.
That Republicans are always going to be legitimate opposition acting in good faith rather than a fascist cult.
That just a little to the left of the GOP is the ideologically perfect Democrat and always will be.
This stubborn insistence on keeping up pretenses and never admitting they’re wrong or trying another way is costing them a shitload more people staying home than they’re gaining independents or wavering Republicans.
It’s why Democrats are only winning by the slimmest of margins and even lost the House at a time when winning by landslides should be easier than ever since the opposition is the most incompetent fascist party in history and the majority of the population is to the left of center. Not just left at where neoliberals pretend that the center is, left of ACTUAL center.
you have to get voters that are as close to your opponent as possible
That is one of the dumbest opinions I’ve ever heard, but don’t feel bad, the people running the DNC share it too.
Some of us are just in the “sweet spot” where we’re old enough to remember 08 Obama but young enough the normal mental effects of aging haven’t made us forget yet.
Obama was the furthest from center Dem we’ve ran in decades, and he was flipping red states all over.
What you said just isn’t based in reality, it’s just what neoliberals have been repeating for 30 years over and over and over…
It doesn’t make it true.
Because whether the “moderate” candidate beats the Republican or loses, the neoliberals will always say whatever just happened is proof we need to be more conservative.
All it’s led to is running a candidate that needs over a billion dollars spent to beat donald fucking trump in a presidential election.
My dumb ass dog could beat trump. And he doesnt even have opposable thumbs. And there’s a very good chance Biden can’t beat trump twice.
What I said is what got Clinton, Obama, and Biden elected. Not saying it’s a great thing, it’s just reality. Neither party has the base to win on their own, the GoP is a lot closer to being able to do it due to voter turn out rates. So they either chase the middle, or demonize their opponent to get more of their base off the couch.
Obama was the furthest from center Dem we’ve ran in decades, and he was flipping red states all over.
What you said just isn’t based in reality, it’s just what neoliberals have been repeating for 30 years over and over and over…
It ain’t complicated, but I dont think I’ll be able to get you to understand this.
Congress controls the purse, not Biden. Hope that clears things up for you.
Hmm, sounds like maybe he shouldn’t have bypassed Congress multiple times to sell arms to israel. Or avoided structuring transfers to avoid congressional oversight
Biden literally ran on being able to work with Republicans in Congress…
Then when everyone got surprised and dems won the presidency, Senate, and House, suddenly Biden said it would be pointless for him to try and change even a democrats vote.
But he still ran again in 2024 despite admitting the entire reason he said he should be president was bullshit
I doubt it honestly. People calling for stopping the genocide are on the left, which should see trump getting elected as a worse option in everything (including Palestine) than Biden is
So it’s better to just let Trump win, even though he’s on the record saying that Israel should “finish the job”?
Who said that?
No one, but centrists can’t rationalize support for genocide without pretending that opposition to genocide is support for Trump.
Isn’t Biden’s continued aid/support still helping Israel “finish the job”? He is the sitting president and refuses to stop…there is no difference in the actions; one shithead candidate is being honest about it. stop this what if talk and look at what is actually still happening. Actions speak louder and reach a wider audience
Yes. At the same time, he’s burned a lot of voters by letting it go this long.
People who downvoted ^^ this comment are fucking stupid. If you don’t believe / agree that there’s a genocide happening in Gaza, you’re inhuman or unthinking.
The thing people probably take offense to is the notion that electing Trump to office is gonna make things better for Palestinians and curtailing genocidal Israeli nationalism under Netanyahu.
Then they’re mad at their own imaginations, since no one here is saying to vote for Trump.
/politics try not to deny there’s a genocide happening challenge.
Challenge failed.
Even if he did stop it we won’t forget what he’s allowed to happen. Anything at this point is meaningless damage control, like their bullshit ceasefire resolution at the UN.
He didn’t even consider stopping aid an option until he realized the genocide would cost him votes.
We’re fucked.
How? Polls are complete bullshit.
I haven’t done extensive research or anything, but it does seem like the gap closes when the survey includes more people. I’m hoping this indicates a strong margin of error in Trump’s favor - though I don’t know why it’s so consistent.
I’m also hopeful that there will be a large amount of “normal” conservatives that would say ‘Trump’ in a poll, but are turned off by him enough to not show up to vote.
Polls…. lol!
